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Thread: Betting on the Yellow Brick Road, or, Counting Chicken(Taco)s Before They Hatch

  1. #21
    MoJo Mother Superior olddbrider's Avatar
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    Should have gotten those tacos when you had the chance...

    http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_new...r-expert-warns
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  2. #22
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    We'll see. There have been several 15% and greater corrections during the past decade's bull run. Gold is still trading within the upward channel and we're coming up on the annual buying season for celebrations in India, China, and the Middle East, and Christmas too that have historically been the time of year for gains in price as demand increases. Several gold bugs technical data had them calling this dip a month ago, targeting the $1630 area in their guesses. Seems they were pretty close.

    The facts remain that the fundamentals haven't changed. The world's economies are no closer to being healed than they have been all along.

    By most measurements things are still as bad or worse than ever for many of the banks in the U.S., Europe's Union, Great Britain, and Japan. The central banks have tried all the Keynesian tricks up their sleeve, but are unwilling to try simple capitalism. Decades of believing that debt equals wealth has warped the concepts taught and learned by our economists and leaders so that they can't see the forest for the trees. Which they seem intent to cut down to make more paper from. The Swiss and Brazilian central banks have chosen to purposefully devalue their currencies in order to keep trading with these other consumers of their products. The Greek problem is not solved and this is leading to banks teetering on the brink in France.

    To date, there have been many a columnist who has foretold the demise of precious metals at the first sign of a dip, and so far they have then been proven wrong over time.

    From what I understand about portfolio growth management it is usually those who do the opposite to what the general populous believes is right, because the general populace are where the profits come from.

    I think the same is true with wealth preservation. When there are dips like this in metals it is a buying opportunity. Look at the ten-year charts and see.

    Some say we could easily see $2000 gold by year end if previous instances in this bull market of ascent after similar pull-backs in price are any indication. As long as the trend remains with higher lows and higher highs when viewing these oscillations, I'm thinking that prices are still headed higher in the long run.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
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  3. #23
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Here's the Ten-Year chart


    Notice the divergence of late between the 60-day moving average, blue, and the 200-day moving average, green. The further apart these two lines become the greater the correction will be to bring them back in line with the long-term trend.

    The recent dip is right where it should be when compared to the longer trend over the past ten years. Don't worry, be happy!

    This is a buying opportunity, . . . if you can find anyone selling bullion for this so-called "market" price . . .

    Even players in the market who are asking for delivery of 100 oz. bars are being offered cash well over the market price as an incentive to settle without taking delivery of the element itself.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
    ~ Mark Twain
    Local Trails - Rocky Hill Ranch

  4. #24
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    i dont know man, gold closed $98 above platinum yesterday.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  5. #25
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    The rout in stocks led many investors (i.e. funds) to liquidate positions in other places (commodities, bonds, etc.) in order to cover their positions in the stock market. Precious metals are a really small market, comparatively. So, when a few huge funds decided to pare down their holdings in metals it can have a drastic effect on the price in the short term, yet have little relationship with the value of the metal in the long term.

    What we are seeing may be the beginning of part deaux of 2008's big dip. This may be the first rumble. Such gyrations will affect all of the markets, but, as in 2008, some things will hold their value better than others. Look at what maintained value and recovered quicker back then and it might be an indicator of what will do the same should the circumstances be similar in the near future.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
    ~ Mark Twain
    Local Trails - Rocky Hill Ranch

  6. #26
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Gold had been trading higher than Platinum since the first of August 2011. Platinum finally almost closed the gap on gold trading -$18 below right now.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  7. #27
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Order has been restored to the universe, Platinum is finally trading above gold again. That was a long crazy run.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  8. #28
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    gold = $1615
    platinum = $1400
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  9. #29
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ridenfool View Post
    Well, 1 year has almost passed and I'm looking forward to a greenbelt ride, and to some Tacodeli goodness.
    4 years later...
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  10. #30
    Mojo Riposte June Bug's Avatar
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    When I lived in the bitty town of Dolores, CO, the Dolores River was about 100 feet from my doorstep. I panned the Dolores for gold a few times and got some color, but the price of gold was zip & I was working hard at my day job. I also took a long day hike up Bear Creek one day with my gold pan, not realizing it was the only long drainage in the area with zero prospect for finding any type of color and that, my friends, effectively ended my gold panning career.

    However, as a relatively new retiree, I'd love to head west (further west than the Llano River, which is reported to have a tiny bit of gold in one particular spot) and just pan for gold here and there. I love to hike, I like water, and I love to wander along streambeds, so win/win, right? I suspect the modern version of the old bearded gold prospector with his donkey (retired baby boomer with ATV, metal detector and GPS) is alive and well these days.

    Also, lots of information on the interwebs makes it easier to find places with more likelihood of producing.....a little something. New Mexico has some great publications on placer deposits and there is a lot of unrestricted land (feds or state ownership, and not claimed) in the Western states.

    I'm just mystified as to how you off load your raw gold for cold cash.

  11. #31
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    So, just doing some quick math on the ROI here :

    Gold on July 8, 2010: 1198
    Gold today: 1163

    So over the last 4 years if you had invested in gold based on this post, you would have lost ~3% of your money over those 4 years.

    If you had instead, foolishly sunk your money into that gamble called the stock market and bought into the S&P 500:

    S&P on July 8 2010: 1070
    S&P today: 2012

    Essentially you would have doubled your money.

    While I believe that commodities can (and should) be a part of any long-term investment strategy, they should be a small portion. And, most importantly, if you are going to invest in commodities, you should shy away from those that are heavily tied to speculation, such as gold. A good rule of thumb is that if you hear celebrity infomercials on AM radio talk shows hyping something as an investment, you're probably best served to stay away from it.

    You would be likewise foolish to drop all of your money into a single fund, like the S&P fund, because it can be volatile.

    The worst advice that people have given over the years is to liquidate all of your investments and sink it all into gold. It is a losing strategy. Those people are waiting for the end of the world and they have a long wait ahead of them. In a time where US currency is worthless and only physical gold is a currency of trade, I'd rather invest in lead. Just an ounce. And then I don't have to worry.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  12. #32
    i do it all for the cookie
    MoJo SuppoRteR
    Spicewookie's Avatar
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    One ounce of lead won't even get you through the first wave of zombies! 1.5oz buckshot is the minimum needed. I've been investing in lead in preparation for tomorrow's Dead Deer Festival. ROI is delicious meat. And I'm no meaty urologist*, but the cold front and moon phase is just about perfect.

  13. #33
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Who said I would be firing it in that direction?
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

    庄富瑞

    Click HERE for all your Austin Biking information


  14. #34
    MoJo Pope butters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spicewookie View Post
    One ounce of lead won't even get you through the first wave of zombies! 1.5oz buckshot is the minimum needed. I've been investing in lead in preparation for tomorrow's Dead Deer Festival. ROI is delicious meat. And I'm no meaty urologist*, but the cold front and moon phase is just about perfect.
    would vegan zombies have a conflict of interest?

  15. #35
    Poppin Fresh Doughboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spicewookie View Post
    One ounce of lead won't even get you through the first wave of zombies! 1.5oz buckshot is the minimum needed. I've been investing in lead in preparation for tomorrow's Dead Deer Festival. ROI is delicious meat. And I'm no meaty urologist*, but the cold front and moon phase is just about perfect.
    If you shoot the deer, who will make the sausage?

    (Circa 2010, Nat Nat thought deer sausage was made by the deer, not from the deer.)
    June Bug likes this.
    I only ride PARK..... cause that's what gear my bike is usually in. PARK

  16. #36
    Poppin Fresh Doughboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by butters View Post
    would vegan zombies have a conflict of interest?
    That's only way vegans would get brains.
    I only ride PARK..... cause that's what gear my bike is usually in. PARK

  17. #37
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    record close DJIA today?
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  18. #38
    Mojo Riposte June Bug's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doughboy View Post
    If you shoot the deer, who will make the sausage?
    (Circa 2010, Nat Nat thought deer sausage was made by the deer, not from the deer.)
    Wait........WHAT?

    Attachment 9777

  19. #39
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Toninator View Post
    record close DJIA today?
    Yeah, but that's only money.

    If you're into that kinda thing.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

    庄富瑞

    Click HERE for all your Austin Biking information


  20. #40
    MoJoMoRon bartman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    So, just doing some quick math on the ROI here :

    Gold on July 8, 2010: 1198
    Gold today: 1163

    So over the last 4 years if you had invested in gold based on this post, you would have lost ~3% of your money over those 4 years.

    If you had instead, foolishly sunk your money into that gamble called the stock market and bought into the S&P 500:

    S&P on July 8 2010: 1070
    S&P today: 2012

    Essentially you would have doubled your money.

    While I believe that commodities can (and should) be a part of any long-term investment strategy, they should be a small portion. And, most importantly, if you are going to invest in commodities, you should shy away from those that are heavily tied to speculation, such as gold. A good rule of thumb is that if you hear celebrity infomercials on AM radio talk shows hyping something as an investment, you're probably best served to stay away from it.

    You would be likewise foolish to drop all of your money into a single fund, like the S&P fund, because it can be volatile.

    The worst advice that people have given over the years is to liquidate all of your investments and sink it all into gold. It is a losing strategy. Those people are waiting for the end of the world and they have a long wait ahead of them. In a time where US currency is worthless and only physical gold is a currency of trade, I'd rather invest in lead. Just an ounce. And then I don't have to worry.
    huh? a liberal tax and spender writing about investment strategies?! oh my...karl marx is rolling over in his grave...the next thing you know Bill Maher will be catching hell from the left...and Obama's sainthood and Nobel Peace prize will be rescinded...

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