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Thread: Betting on the Yellow Brick Road, or, Counting Chicken(Taco)s Before They Hatch

  1. #41
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    So, just doing some quick math on the ROI here :

    Gold on July 8, 2010: 1198
    Gold today: 1163
    .
    I would have dumped everything at $1700
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  2. #42
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Everyone thinks that way. But in reality everyone tends to be greedy. I have a good 25 years of investing experience since I opened my first account and I can guarantee you that the only time I got out at the peak was by accident.
    TheSarge likes this.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  3. #43
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Like gambling, I set a threshold and once it's crossed I execute the plan.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  4. #44
    MoJoMoRon bartman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    Everyone thinks that way. But in reality everyone tends to be greedy. I have a good 25 years of investing experience since I opened my first account and I can guarantee you that the only time I got out at the peak was by accident.
    what?! the next thing ya know you'll be secretly pushing the straight GOP ticket button on the electronic ballot..maybe you're one of those closet conservatives who just acts like a libbie in this town to be kewl...

    OH, SNAP!

    it's other people's money that you dont mind the crooked pols stealing and spending...GOT IT!

  5. #45
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Gold and Silver are NOT investments. They are the worlds oldest and most reliable Store Of Value. You don't buy gold because it increases in value, you buy it to hedge against a fiat currency that loses purchasing power over time. Sometimes slowly, sometimes at a brisk pace, but always loses value in the long haul.

    Over the past ten or fifteen years nothing has provided protection of wealth better than Gold.

    Most folks do not realize that the DJIA and SP500 have become, essentially, PR scams. From what I've read lately, most of the QE money being funneled to the banking industry is being used to prop up these markets, and, to short Gold. There aren't as many small players in the market as there used to be and the lion's share of trading seems to be coming from a mere handful of players making large plays. This sounds more like bullying than a free market. Most savvy investors are staying out of the game because these big players are screwing with the natural order. The algorithms aren't tracking the way they used to. There is a rouge factor screwing with analysis and prediction of trends. It is no longer a level playing field and the referees are turning a blind eye to this unsportsmanlike conduct.

    The reason for plying QE into these markets is to make the economy "appear" strong, and the USD look good, when nothing could be further from the truth. Many call it "kicking the can down the road." It needs to at least look good enough that the rest of the world will continue taking it in trade for the things we want to buy while the big banks desperately try to plug all the holes in their precious Titanic.

    Meanwhile in the rest of the world where free markets are more appreciated, players like China and Russia are forging new trade agreements that exclude the necessity to use USDollars. Germany has even joined into trade agreements with Russia for fuel, and battles with walking the thin line between keeping good NATO relations and Russian natural gas flowing to its citizens as Winter approaches. In the Middle East powers are forging new alliances as well, away from Dollars.

    Anyone who doesn't understand more about what is going on in the rest of the world, and about how the Dollar will eventually be side-stepped as a de-facto reserve currency, will look at DJIA and such and think that things must be GREAT!

    To me, a rapidly rising value of stock prices across the board does not represent a growing economy. It represents a rapidly devaluing currency. When the currency is measured against the stock, even if the value in man-hours of the stock has remained static, the value of the dollar is less and it now takes more of them to purchase the same stock. So the DJIA hit a record high. YIPPEE! Um, er, maybe not such a good thing after all.

    More than adequate evidence has been found to support how the banks are resorting to use of "paper gold" by shorting futures markets at key moments with ridiculously large sell orders that cannot be filled. Just to maintain the appearance that the value of gold isn't all that great.

    Again, most don't understand the big picture well enough to grasp how doing this is important to the big banks and those who have sold the Dollar down the river for their personal gain. When one or three of these players can short the gold market in a single hour for an amount equal to a significant percentage of total annual gold production, it just doesn't add up. It isn't a rational act by a legitimate trader. The effect results in triggering of stops on many other trades, creating a cascade that drives the price down. Thus, making the Dollar appear a little less anemic and gold a little more so.

    What was it Archimedes said, "Give me a lever long enough and a fulcrum on which to place it, and I shall move the world." I think that, with the cooperation of the authorities tasked with preventing this sort of shenanigans, this is the principle behind these moves. Only the lever and the fulcrum are for all intents and purposes, imaginary. The effect is real for only as long as the charade can be maintained.

    The trade agreements that China has forged over the past five or six years, plus the fact that they are buying all the "cheap" gold they can get their hands on, is positioning them to be a key force in the development of some new system of international settlement that will displace the post-WWII rule of the Dollar. They are the largest producer of gold, and the largest purchaser of it from other countries. Over the past few years they have amassed a store of gold that will soon eclipse the "claimed" gold holdings of the U.S., which hasn't been audited in over fifty years.

    Recently, China purchased the building in Manhattan that houses the world's major gold vault in New York. They own it, and bought this prime real estate for a song. I see this as an offer of collateral on our debt to them, which is so large it can likely never be paid.

    The new gold trading facilities in Hong Kong and Singapore are setting the stage for a changing of the guard. Establishment of precious metal spot prices by someone other than the U.S., U.K. and the banking cartel behind them both, instead will be handed to free markets controlled by the buyers and sellers, the way it is supposed to work. When this change begins it will be the stuff of legend as the humans turn the corner to the next "reset" in the system. China knows this as they have remained a single country over thousands of years and have witnessed this in their history several times. We're the new kids on the block and haven't the cultural knowledge permeating though our national psyche to remind us of the inevitable.

    This current 3% slump is seen by some as an opportunity to purchase gold at great value, when compared to what it will be after it becomes a controlling component of the next international settlement standard. Gold required to back some specific percentage of the currency puts the brakes on runaway printing presses.

    If gold is presumed to be losing favor in the press through propagation of the statistics posted above without "the rest of the story," the question remains as to why is the U.S. Mint still selling bullion coins at remarkably high volumes?

    It seems an odd disparity when a commodity meets the qualities of being both scarce, and in demand, yet the price languishes. In a free market this simply doesn't happen. Something is rotten in Denmark, or at least on Wall Street.

    The game is afoot.
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 11-03-2014 at 11:55 AM.
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  6. #46
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Nothing is rotten in Denmark, gold is a commodity and it is traded as a commodity. People speculate on it. This is how markets work. It is no more a store of wealth than any other commodity or currency. Wealth is perception. It all comes down to value. What happens if a huge deposit of gold is discovered? Or somebody figures out that gold causes cancer and it falls out of favor in jewelry?

    If you are buying gold as a store of value you are making several assumptions,mother two largest are:

    1. The U.S. Currency is going to implode
    2. When this happens, gold will still hold its value

    While you may believe that #2 is a long shot I would contend that it is no more a long shot than #1.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  7. #47
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    Nothing is rotten in Denmark, gold is a commodity and it is traded as a commodity. People speculate on it. This is how markets work. It is no more a store of wealth than any other commodity or currency. Wealth is perception. It all comes down to value. What happens if a huge deposit of gold is discovered? Or somebody figures out that gold causes cancer and it falls out of favor in jewelry?

    If you are buying gold as a store of value you are making several assumptions,mother two largest are:

    1. The U.S. Currency is going to implode
    2. When this happens, gold will still hold its value

    While you may believe that #2 is a long shot I would contend that it is no more a long shot than #1.
    Regarding #1, I presume this must indicate that you have come to believe that there is some chance of a fiat currency lasting the test of time? If so, please cite historical references to support this rather unique perspective you have.

    To the best of my knowledge there has been no currency that has removed ties to some sort of commodity which has survived. The reason is that any form of money that does not require significant labor to produce will be abused. Making a keyboard entry, and, the printing of paper, do not qualify as labor significant enough to prevent issuance beyond what is necessary to balance against production of goods and services.

    Regarding #2, Is there any historical record you can show where "a currency imploded" and minted gold and silver coins were not an alternative used beneficially to preserve wealth by those using the currency who did not share this unsupported belief you seem to evangelize, repeatedly.

    There are plenty of records of failed currencies throughout history. In every case a commodity is what replaces it. (until some government usurps the natural order and decrees by fiat to replace it)

    "Fiat" means "by decree" and this requires the belief in a promise to those who must use such a currency that it will not be made worthless by those who made the promise.

    Trust erodes quite a bit faster than does, say, a rare mineral.

    I read somewhere along the way, "Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it."

    Your comment about "what happens if a large deposit of gold is discovered?" is pretty amusing, considering the same question can be asked about the Dollar. New deposits of Federal Reserve dollars have been appearing since its creation in 1913.

    Since gold was completely removed from backing the dollar in 1971 the value of the dollar has been reduced by a factor of five. Five times more dollars (than are necessary to trade goods and services) have been "discovered" in our money supply.

    What took $20 to purchase in '71 takes $100 now.

    About $1 of silver back in 1913 would buy the same.

    There are good reasons that history illustrates as to why a government cannot be trusted to control the money supply. The founders of this nation knew this. When Silver and Gold are money the people themselves control the expansion of the money supply.

    Please elaborate on why you believe stealing money from the holder by intentionally devaluing it while it sits in their pocket is somehow superior.

    Based on previous responses you offer, any new reply likely will be a short sound bite with nothing of significance to support it beyond a fervent belief on your part.

    Perhaps you may notice a similarity between your replies and your money of favor? Both require belief, in lieu of supporting evidence.

    The dollar has been devalued to a point where it is worth less than 1% of its original value. It took a hundred years to get there.

    How much longer do you think this miniscule value can be eroded?
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 11-04-2014 at 03:52 PM.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
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  8. #48
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    damn fool you went all Jeff Gordon on him!
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  9. #49
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    I'm waiting for bartman to 'Harvek' AB and ya'll get to scrappin!
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  10. #50
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    A more specific answer to the question about how new gold discoveries would affect the value of gold,

    Unlike Federal Reserve Notes which are created with keystrokes and put immediately into the supply, a new gold discovery would have to be surveyed, planned, mined, extracted, assayed, minted, etc. before it would cause any effect on the value of the commodity. It would take decades for the discovery to make it into the free market. A lot of people would have to put forth their efforts to make this happen. This effort is what makes it valuable. Like the effort required to bring food to market, build a car, or anything else that a person might value.

    Even then, it would trickle in and the market would adjust automatically. The same way it does with injections of fiat dollars, only more slowly.

    Rather less immediate delivery, I would say, than the QE injections of Billions on a monthly basis that have been going on for a few years now, just to keep the dollar ever so carefully balanced on the verge of collapse.

    Less immediate too than the inflation of the money supply beyond the inflation of the goods and services it is decreed to be used as THE method to trade, which has averaged between 4% and 10% annually since the creation of the irredeemable FR Note to replace the US Note that WAS redeemable for silver. This "inflation" figure represents how much too much money was put into the system. Had the supply not been "inflated" beyond necessity the dollars saved would buy in the future pretty much what they could buy in the past.

    The legal definition of "Note" is paraphrased as "something that can be redeemed for what the note represents." Like a pawn ticket represents the thing pawned, or the number on a fast food receipt represents the food you purchased but have not received. In this case a "dollar" is the thing represented. A dollar is and always has been a measure of silver. A measure required under the constitution to be specified by congress.

    The FRN is a lie on its face. Today it will take about 20 one dollar FRNs to purchase a dollar of silver from the U.S. Mint. (which is still required by the constitution to provide real money, even if you won't use it)
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 11-04-2014 at 02:52 PM.
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  11. #51
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Here's the short answer: I doubled my money and if you invested in gold you lost money. I don't need 10 paragraphs to make that point.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

    庄富瑞

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  12. #52
    MoJo Mother Superior GTFOOMW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    Here's the short answer: I doubled my money and if you invested in gold you lost money. I don't need 10 paragraphs to make that point.
    Only if you sold, never forget that.
    xx

  13. #53
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    Here's the short answer: I doubled my money and if you invested in gold you lost money. I don't need 10 paragraphs to make that point.
    So, you have once again completely met my stated expectations.

    Thanks again for arguing strongly while never actually proving anything at all.

    Like GTFOOMW so succinctly put it, if you are still in, you haven "made" anything at all. Which, oddly, seems to be your goal, and has nothing at all to do with why people purchase precious metals. But you seem to be unable to grasp the subtlety.

    They are for diversification. That's a big word for not putting all your eggs in one basket. Most financial planners will recommend a balanced portfolio.

    The bottom has fallen out of your favorite basket once in recent times, and if you didn't notice gold held its own, comparatively.

    That basket, from the perspective of those who trade there professionally, is at the point of doing it again. Nothing about the fundamentals that led up to the last crash have changed, except it has become quite a bit worse since.

    Good luck.

    Check your parachute.

    Geronimo!

    Oh, and please explain the math you employ to show the detail on how money was lost on gold purchased at $300/oz. and lost on silver purchased at $7/oz. I'm curious to see how you make this "point" you speak of.

    You keep using that word.

    I do not think that word means what you think it means.
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 11-04-2014 at 09:57 PM.
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  14. #54
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    The point was what now when you bought the point was from the date of the post, so your $300 price point was irrelevant. And if you are still holding gold, you haven't made anything either. Time will tell.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  15. #55
    MoJoMoRon bartman's Avatar
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    [B]
    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    Nothing is rotten in Denmark, gold is a commodity and it is traded as a commodity. People speculate on it. This is how markets work. It is no more a store of wealth than any other commodity or currency. Wealth is perception. It all comes down to value. What happens if a huge deposit of gold is discovered? Or somebody figures out that gold causes cancer and it falls out of favor in jewelry?

    If you are buying gold as a store of value you are making several assumptions,mother two largest are:

    1. The U.S. Currency is going to implode
    2. When this happens, gold will still hold its value

    While you may believe that #2 is a long shot I would contend that it is no more a long shot than #1.
    Wendy Who? you dont know jack sh!t...get back to your closet..
    Quote Originally Posted by The Toninator View Post
    I'm waiting for bartman to 'Harvek' AB and ya'll get to scrappin!
    harvick? I'm going kasey kayne crew member w some overhand haymakers but the jellyfish keeps sliming away...he doesnt want any because she's too busy tucking that tail and scampering away....tail dragging..

  16. #56
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    the metals are taking a DUMP this morning!
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  17. #57
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Toninator View Post
    the metals are taking a DUMP this morning!
    That's what you call a buying opportunity.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
    ~ Mark Twain
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  18. #58
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    "I" wouldnt. There's too much going in the world markets for me to buy. If silver gets down below $9toz again i'll be buying like a mofo.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  19. #59
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Food for thought.

    After adjusting for fees, inflation, and capital gains taxes the return on investments on the DJIA have averaged a gain of about 1.9% per year. Look at the chart, and read the article for further detail. Over the length of this chart the Dow has stayed within a channel that emphasizes how consistent this return has been.

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    On average, after accounting for devaluation of the dollar's purchasing power over time, it will take about 50 years to "double" your money betting on DJIA.

    For example, if you invested $100 in the DJIA in 1974, returning gains of 1.9% per year this would have netted you $76 in gains (in 1971 dollars). Your account would show about $880 today, but it would only buy the same as $176 would in 1971.

    If AB made this investment, he would want to believe that his investment grew by 8.8 times, he would go on and on about it, when in actuality it only grew by 1.76 times in what he can do with the money at the cash register.

    People are easily sold a bill of goods due to devaluation of the dollar skewing the perspective. Because they don't bother with understanding all the details, they believe things are quite a bit better than they actually are. Devaluation of the dollar's purchasing power is felt by most folks more than it is seen. The numbers don't lie.

    I'll agree with AB to a point, 1.9% is better than a kick in the head.

    Most "savings" plans actually lose money over time, as their earned interest is less than the rate of dollar devaluation (a.k.a. inflation). So, the stock market can be an effective way to preserve wealth and even make a small return after investment. Contrary to AB's thoughts on the matter I actually agree that the stock market is a better choice than stuffing Benjamins under the mattress, by a significant measure.

    Real Estate is another option.

    Both of the above incur additional maintenance fees and taxes that will cut into the wealth one is trying to preserve. In the long run you may still end up with less purchasing power than spending the money immediately would have provided.

    Purchasing and holding precious metals has no such burden. Buy a coin now, wait until the opportunity presents itself to sell and recoup your stored wealth. Historically, it will return on par as equal value over time. Buy over $1000 in precious metal and sales tax is waived.

    Though any of these may be considered investments when trading on the short term, playing the odds, and making your moves when the market peaks, whether that market be stocks, real estate, or precious metals. I don't consider this game to be about wealth preservation over the long term. But it muddles the issue because some people think there is only one way to play. AB may be one of those people. If so, he will be unable to grasp the long-term aspects without a paradigm shift on his part.

    These methods may also be used to preserve wealth, to save one's earnings to spend at a later date and reap the same value at the register over time as you would have had if you spent it today.

    The nature of a corrupt money supply, dictated by decree, is what necessitates finding an alternative to simply holding onto the currency itself.

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    The above chart shows the nominal gold price has gone from about $200 to $800 an ounce over the life of the Federal Reserve. 1913-present. Not a huge gain, but it has actually out-paced inflation by a factor of four to one over that period. The coin Grandpa gave Grandma back in 1913 and was handed down will buy four times the value at the register today over what it would buy in 1913. (actually more, as the spot price is half again higher than the nominal average)

    Compare this to the purchasing power of the Dollar over the same period.

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    If devaluation (inflation) is the result of increasing the monetary base at a rate that is faster than the increase in goods and services, then, this chart brings into sharp focus the amount of change in the monetary base recently. How can this not lead to catastrophe?

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    That is the point of this thread.

    In certain times one needs to consider all the factors in play. Times, like when a nation is teetering on financial collapse. A nation that was in the black a short forty years ago and has now accumulated a debt that increases by a Trillion every year or two. Well, most reputable lenders might consider an entity such as this as being in an untenable situation and a significant risk. The other nations of the world are these lenders. They are no longer buying our bonds. We are printing money to buy the bonds to increase the supply. This is like one player at the Monopoly table having a color copier making his own money, and forcing the other players to continue to play the game at gun point.

    Nobody considers this much fun. Given the opportunity to play with someone else, they will. This is going to happen. When? I can't say. Back in 2000 I felt there was indication of an imminent crash. I though it would go down in 2001 or 2002 at the latest. It took much longer before it happened. But, it happened just the same. Nothing has been done to change the broken foundation. Just some whitewash and a pretty mural painted over it to hide the flaws.

    Regardless of how many flags one waves, parades one watches, the warm and fuzzies of patriotism alone won't fix this. This is bad. Really, really bad. Bad like a drunk uncle borrowing from all his family members, close and distant, then recklessly spending it buying booze for himself and his friends, while the family just keeps giving him more, and more, and more.

    Stocks may be one choice for where to put your cash, hoping to preserve one's nest egg should things go sideways, but there are a lot of variables to consider in any company's chances of maintaining solvency should such an eventuality come to pass.

    Looking at history there are many examples to reference. From Zimbabwe to Germany in the last century to Rome and China thousands of years ago.

    This is not a new problem. It is a very old lesson that humankind is just a little slow to learn from.

    To me it seems important to gather data, understand the facts and the possibilities, then make decisions that will cover your ass no matter what happens.

    One thing history has taught is when you do what everyone else is doing you are more likely to be disappointed with the choice.
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 11-05-2014 at 09:49 AM.
    "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries of life disappear and life stands explained."
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  20. #60
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    the only thing we have going for us is the rest of the world is in a stinkpot as well. the euro is a piece of shit and is finally starting to show it.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

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