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Thread: Betting on the Yellow Brick Road, or, Counting Chicken(Taco)s Before They Hatch

  1. #81
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Toninator View Post
    BID ASK +/- LDN
    GOLD 1,113.5 1,114.2 -20.5 12:57
    SILVER 14.79 14.84 -0.02 12:57
    PLATINUM 978.0 983.0 -11.0 12:55
    PALLADIUM 607.0 612.0 -4.0 12:57
    Interesting day for reviving this thread.

    Here's today's update:

    Gold prices per ounce:
    July 8th 2010: 1198
    Today 1113
    Down 7.1%

    S&P 500:
    July 8th 2010: 1070
    Today 2128
    Up 98.9%


    And in other news, After 5 days of Jade Helm, Obama has still not taken over Texas.

    I do see a strong correlation between those that believe in a gold economy and those that believe the government is taking over texas and sending us all to walmart reeducation camps where we will all have to get gay married.

    Commodities are a viable part of any investment portfolio - in moderation. And staying away from the volatile ones like gold where there is too much speculation. It just shouldn't be the basis for your investment strategy. If it is, you're probably already painfully aware of the risks by now.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  2. #82
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Platinum at $970 but all the coins have dried up, cant find them anywhere.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
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  3. #83
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Toninator View Post
    Platinum at $970 but all the coins have dried up, cant find them anywhere.
    When it was trading at close to $2K a couple of years ago you probably could have found them. The best commodities are the ones used in industrial applications, not speculation.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  4. #84
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    the place was filthy with them. I have found a few but teh $90+ premium sucks. wont pay that. Some places have them for $1300 or more.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
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  5. #85
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Almost 2 years since last check in, new administration...
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
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  6. #86
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Gold is still trailing S&P, anyone that went heavy on gold and eschewed the market would be missing out.

    That being said, markets like stability and I believe we are headed for a slump. Most likely that money will not go into gold, it will head towards quality bonds, short and long term, more as a holding pattern than a long term play.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  7. #87
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    Palladium is on a run to match or beat Platinum...
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  8. #88
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Yeah, and I have my money in the market. If I earned 0% for the back half of this year, I'd beat last year. It is irrational but I can cash in on it.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  9. #89
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    And in china now, so I can't get to google, only BaiDu that says gold is in the $1260 range. So pretty flat over time I guess.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  10. #90
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    Austin will have the Texas Bullion Depository:

    Texas taps private vendor to manage first state-run gold depository in U.S.

    Comptroller Glenn Hegar announced at a news conference at the Capitol that his office had selected Austin-based Lone Star Tangible Assets as the private vendor tasked with building and operating the Texas Bullion Depository.

    “The Texas Bullion Depository will offer Texas safe, fully-insured storage of precious metals providing an alternative to the depositories largely located in and around New York City,” Hegar said.
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  11. #91
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    I'm 18% up for the last 12 months, no metals. I did just have to switch 401 plans due to company acquisition. I was heavy in nasdaq but the new portfolio is heavy djia. Hoping the new funds preform well.
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
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  12. #92
    Mojo Bike Part Terminator Seths Pool's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    And in china now, so I can't get to google, only BaiDu that says gold is in the $1260 range. So pretty flat over time I guess.
    so what actually happens in your web browser when you try to get to google or other restricted websites?
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  13. #93
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Basically 404's, can't load the pages.

    Interestingly, I was in Beijing (political capital of China) and doing an event at the JW Marriott which is connected to the Ritz Carlton. The Ritz and JW are both owned by the Marriott HQ. Access to social media was sporadic. I run a VPN server in my house, so I could occasionally connect to my VPN and browse from there.

    I accessed 5 different WiFi networks while I was there, here's a weird rundown of what I was able to access:

    China Mobile (cellular): Facebook, Twitter, Google, VPN=Yes
    JW Marriott: Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Google, VPN=Yes
    Ritz Carlton: none VPN=No
    Event Wifi: Google, VPN=Yes
    Great Leap Brewing: Google, VPN=No

    Since everything is supposed to go through "The Great Firewall of China" it is odd to see such a disparity across the different locations. I was in Shenzhen last spring and there was far better coverage within the hotels, but that is closer to the Guangdong economic zone (special administrative district) so the rules are a bit different down there.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  14. #94
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    holymoly!
    platinum - $984
    palladium - $938!!!!
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  15. #95
    h8ter of all things fun. The Toninator's Avatar
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    palladium is trading $5 OVER platinum right now!!!! Fucking tony stark!
    Ya'll don't know what it's like
    being male, middle class and white.

  16. #96
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    I always love when someone comes back to this thread.

    Gold, since 2010: Down 7%

    S&P 500, since 2010: Up 123%

    Functionally this is why shorting the US (and the western world for that matter) is always a bad play. It might be a good short term strategy for a week or so, but it is a really bad long term bet. Fear is a shitty commodity to invest in; while gold does have many industrial uses (including my line of business), almost all of the volatility is driven by fear.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Austin Bike View Post
    I always love when someone comes back to this thread.

    Gold, since 2010: Down 7%

    S&P 500, since 2010: Up 123%

    Functionally this is why shorting the US (and the western world for that matter) is always a bad play. It might be a good short term strategy for a week or so, but it is a really bad long term bet. Fear is a shitty commodity to invest in; while gold does have many industrial uses (including my line of business), almost all of the volatility is driven by fear.
    Fear and being prepared are different things. Do people fear being out of water in a a hurricane, or are they being prepared, because they have some stored in case of an emergency?

    Do you have all your portfolio in stocks? I would wager that no financial adviser in the world would suggest doing so.
    Do you have any cash in your house, just in case of an emergency that prevents everyone access to their bank accounts? You are advised to do so, and not just from crazy tin foil hat prepper types.

    Metals are wealth preservers. Sure, one day, maybe, they might shoot up and gain a lot. Or, they might go down some. But metals are NEVER going to go in the dumper and be worth nothing. Never. You can't say that about individual stocks.

  18. #98
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Gold funds are no better than mutual funds.

    Physical gold might be a "wealth preserver" but for the preppers stocking up on gold for the end of days, you're gonna have a hard time trading gold for food. Once you run out, those gold ounces will have *some* value but where they will never be cash is where denominations come in. How do you buy a loaf of bread with a $1000 bill? That will be the problem. Folks have not thought through things that quickly.

    And in a world like that, gas, food and water will be valuable commodities, nobody is gonna want your fancy colored metal.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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  19. #99
    Fuhlauto Balogna Ridenfool's Avatar
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    Physical gold is not something I ever would consider an "investment" in the sense of expecting to make a profit over time on.

    From my point of view it is another form of currency. It is a form which the international banking community uses to conduct business between themselves (maybe because they don't trust each other's local currency?). Whether or not a central bank holds gold, and how much they hold, will determine which international money clubs at which they can secure a seat at the table. This is why China accumulated massive amounts of gold over the past decade or two, in order to get their yuan added to the basket of currencies at the IMF. This is why Russia, India, and many other nations have consistently been net buyers for a while now. Gold is the ultimate measure of money, not the other way round.

    When comparing currencies, gold, as a currency, outshines the rest for its consistency in reflecting equal purchasing power, particularly over long periods of time.

    I was able to recently sell ounces purchased when it was priced below $300/oz and get ~$1300/oz for them. In the end the dollars would probably buy about the same amount of stuff then and now, but if I'd saved dollars in a safe for the same period I would have had $300 of purchasing power at today's devalued rate, compared to the dollar's value around the turn of the century. (frankly, I probably did a little better than par for the course)

    Generally speaking the only time to choose gold over stocks would be in times of market crisis. Two times in the past ten years were golden opportunities. Gold will shine in such times, but, it wouldn't be an investment then either, it would be a wealth-preservation strategy.

    Truly investing in gold for profit through commodity futures, bonds, mining stocks, etc. is not the same thing as holding physical metal. Those are methods of investing in "the business of" the production and sale of gold. I'd consider this as apples and oranges when compared to holding physical gold as a stable form of savings that has no third-party involvement. That is, no third party can screw things up the way the Fed can devalue the dollar, or a market can ruin an investment, or a bank can go belly up leaving depositors between a rock and a hard place until the insurance on their deposits can be processed. It is in these times that such diversification pays off.

    Even in an "end of days" scenario there will be those who have and those who don't. The ones in power will still appreciate nice things, and the artisans and craftsmen will be buying raw materials. If the currency collapses the paper money might very well fall out of favor, but clad coins and bullion coins and bars will find a place in any market desperate for a recognizable medium to conduct trade.

    So, yes you might not be able to take an ounce to a farmer's market and get a good value on purchasing fresh veggies. Exchanging gold for fair value will be but another inconvenience that will accompany such times. I'd suspect trying to trade a stock portfolio at the same Farmer's market might present similar results. Either way, you would need to go through the appropriate channels in order to maximize your value in the places you have stored your wealth.
    Last edited by Ridenfool; 09-29-2017 at 01:26 PM.
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  20. #100
    Mojo Slow-poke Austin Bike's Avatar
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    Selling gold and making money on it is no different than selling any other commodity or stock. It depends on what you bought it for. As I recall this conversation started with the price higher than it is today.

    If you want to cherry pick data we can surely choose different data points. I can find you plenty of places where both would make you money or lose you money. However saying you bought at $300 and sold at $1300 sounds fine, but in reality there are more data points over time where investing in the stock market provides you a better return over time. Especially in the last 10 years.
    "A person can work up a mean, mean thirst after a hard day of nothing much at all" - Paul Westerberg

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